Highlights
- •Given that Pacmed Critical (PC) or similar tools are not yet on the market and, to date, no cost-effectivenes analysis has been performed, we designed a novel 7-state Markov model based on the pathway for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) and the application of PC along this pathway.
- •We showed that PC has the potential to be cost-effective compared with standard care in the Dutch ICU health setting.
- •This study is one of the first cost-effectiveness analyses of a machine learning device to be used in healthcare and also contributes to the limited cost-effectiveness analyses in the field of ICU and discharge devices.
Abstract
Objectives
The machine learning prediction model Pacmed Critical (PC), currently under development,
may guide intensivists in their decision-making process on the most appropriate time
to discharge a patient from the intensive care unit (ICU). Given the financial pressure
on healthcare budgets, this study assessed whether PC has the potential to be cost-effective
compared with standard care, without the use of PC, for Dutch patients in the ICU
from a societal perspective.
Methods
A 1-year, 7-state Markov model reflecting the ICU care pathway and incorporating the
PC decision tool was developed. A hypothetical cohort of 1000 adult Dutch patients
admitted in the ICU was entered in the model. We used the literature, expert opinion,
and data from Amsterdam University Medical Center for model parameters. The uncertainty
surrounding the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was assessed using deterministic
and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses.
Results
PC was a cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €18 507
per quality-adjusted life-year. PC remained cost-effective over standard care in multiple
scenarios and sensitivity analyses. The likelihood that PC will be cost-effective
was 71% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year.
The key driver of the results was the parameter “reduction in ICU length of stay.”
Conclusions
We showed that PC has the potential to be cost-effective for Dutch ICUs in a time
horizon of 1 year. This study is one of the first cost-effectiveness analyses of a
machine learning device. Further research is needed to validate the effectiveness
of PC, thereby focusing on the key parameter “reduction in ICU length of stay” and
potential spill-over effects.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: October 21, 2021
Accepted:
June 29,
2021
Identification
Copyright
© 2021 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc.
